Climate change: Which coffee original gets lost first?

dua minggu yang lalu

i'm doing some research on this and the data is pretty uncomfortable.

The SCA 2019 report on coffee and climate change says that up to 50% of the global arabica suitable area could be lost before 2050 in the high emission scenario. Ethiopia that became one of the most historic originals in the coffee industry is potentially losing 39-59% of its production areas. Colombians have started moving the cultivation area to higher altitude 150m-200m per decade because the temperature below is not conducive.

What about Indonesia? BMKG data for the Ggoh region in Aceh recorded rising average temperature at approximately 0.8-1 degrees in the last 20 years. small it seems but for optimal arabica growing at 18-24 degrees Celsius, every 0.5 degrees is significant.

Which ones do you think are the most vulnerable and the ones still have the long runway?

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dua minggu yang lalu

from my side farmers in Sumatra, the data mentioned it feels real in the field. Rain patterns are different now than I knew 15-20 years ago. The dry season is longer in a few years, and when the rainy season comes, it can be too hard to destroy the flowers already set.

For the Gayo itself, the area below 1,200m has started to have problems with its crop consistency. It's still stable. It's over 1,400m. But the land is limited.

dua minggu yang lalu

thanks for sharing the data, it's so informative. May I ask, for Indonesia itself other than Gogo, which is the most vulnerable coffee production area? Toraja, Flores, or Java? Does anyone have a specific study?

dua minggu yang lalu

for Indonesia, its vulnerability is different per original. Toralah at 1,400- 1,900m is still relatively safe in the middle term. Come on up too. The most vulnerable areas are arabica areas at 800- 1,100m in Sumatra and Java some districts. It's too close to the lower boundary temperature for arabica.

The interesting thing is Papua. Some areas in Papua have 1,500-2,000m more with current temperatures still very conducive to high quality arabica. And with the temperature rising, the runways are longer than original-original in lower altitude. But access and infrastructure are still a big challenge.

dua minggu yang lalu

i want to give you a lot of missed warning: that large-original Ethiopian-like original and some of Brazil's productivity went down significantly, the effect on the global coffee price was not linear. It's about supply shock that makes arabica prices go up very sharp in no time. ICE arabica futures are so volatile, if there's a large crop failure in some major origin at once, there can be hard spikes.

dua minggu yang lalu

since reading the thread like this, each one buys a single original. The Yirgacheffe I've been drinking now, in the last 2-3 decades, may be something that's hard to come by. It's kind of sad to think about.

dua minggu yang lalu

i get why this feels depressed. But there's a side that's rarely discussed: Yunnan in southern China, a certain height in Tanzania and Kenya, some areas in Uganda. Papua Indonesia is also a potential if infrastructure is repaired.

Not that losing Yirgacheffe wasn't pathetic. New original 10 years from now might be top tier.

Climate change: Which coffee original gets lost first?

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