iPCC's coffee data. It's creepy. Supply chain? | Supply Chain & Export Forum | Clorofile
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iPCC's coffee data. It's creepy. Supply chain?

M
satu bulan yang lalu
read the IPCC report 2022 yesterday, there's a section that's probably 50% arabic land that's now feable no longer worth planting coffee in 2050. That number is huge when you think about it.

Not an empty theory either. brazil 2021 gets frost once, direct production goes down 11%, arabika prices jump from about $1.20 a pound to $2.40 a year. Double. Colombia FNC also released 14% production data at 2022- 2023 due to the prolonged La Nina.

From the supply chain side, this should be wake up call. Diversify original, long-term hedging, more aggressive forward contract. But the fact is a lot of buyers are still one- region dependent.

Is there anyone who's serious about this?
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7 Replies
W
satu bulan yang lalu
the most vulnerable colombians rely on certain aliases for specialty grades. if the temperature goes up in 1-2 degrees, the optimal zone goes up too high and the ground is too narrow up there.
H
satu bulan yang lalu
50% of IPCC's worth their scenario. Not that you don't think about it, but making a reasonable decision based on a worst case isn't wise either. horizon 2050 is still 25 years over.
E
satu bulan yang lalu
but the coffee supply supply is a lot longer. if you want to diversify the original, it takes 3-5 years to build a new reliable relationship suppliers. if you just move by 2048, there's no time.
H
satu bulan yang lalu
it's valid. i'm more into don't panic, but plan remains necessary. different.
O
satu bulan yang lalu
it's a little buyer side that buys 1 -2 tons per dropment, the origin diversification is practical. the minimum order of many originals is on our budget. so we basically depend on what's available in the market.
F
satu bulan yang lalu
there is a more practical approach: track rainfall data and prices futures periodically, so that it can detect earlier if there is supply pressure from a specific original. no need to change sourcing now, but early warning system was worth an investment in time.
J
satu bulan yang lalu
robusta had a different impact. some original robusta could be more viable if the temperature rises. climate changes don't add up to any kind of coffee.

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