this green bean shortage will continue until when do you think?

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ICO once published global deficit coffee around 4.1 million bags in 2021-2022. Then Vietnam 2023 severe drought, production down about 20%. Arabika C-price December 2024 penetrated $3.08 a pound, highest since 1977.

On the plus side, it feels like almost every line. rising prices, availability tight, lots that are usually easily searched all of a sudden waiting list.

It's hard to predict: the Brazilian cycle is biennial. The year off-year production can go down 20-30% of on- year. this year 2024-2025 Brazil is being off-cycle. If Vietnam is still recovery and Brazil is down, supply pressure can continue.

Anyone have any more specific views on when the pressure supply might subside?

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Brazil's biennial cycle is predictable, but its magnate is always a surprise. If it's 2025- 2026 Brazil on- year strong and Vietnam full recovery, there may be normalization. But one frost in Brazil or one more La Nina episode could extend this situation by 1-2 years.

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interestingly, at a high price like this, a farmer who has the quality of willing to sell to a convention market because the commodities are already interesting. specialty buyer can be harder to get lots of good because competition from commodity buyer that usually doesn't go into that quality.

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it's a real phenomenon. High C prices narrow premium relative to specialty. If C@@.

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from the procurement side, maybe it's a good time to start locking forward contract at a price now if there's a price expectations will go up again. but it also means taking risk if the price turns out to be down.

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most impacted is a small cafe with no forward buying skills. they buy spots, the price goes up right away. the big rodeo that could stock the next 6-12 months is much more protected.

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anything to notice that some importers started pushing robusts into specialty markets despite borderline quality? while arabika tight like this, blending ratio shift but not always communicated to buyer.

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this is what makes it so important for cupping every lot before receiving. Not just messages based on spec on paper.

this green bean shortage will continue until when do you think?

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