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the coffee of the future will be more engineering than natural? it's not science fiction anymore

D
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i think it's time for a serious coffee discussion.

There's some development going on or on:

WCR F1 hybrid variables: World Coffee Research and release of some of the F1 hybrids such as Centroamerican, Starmayan, Milenio, and Mundo Novo. This is not GMO but the hybrid designed for certain characters: disease resistance, yield higher, predictable cup quality. The farmer who planted this adopt genetic character is already engineer for a certain purpose.

The lab-grown coffee: VTT Technical Research Centre in Finland succeeded in producing coffee from the plant cell culture in the lab in 2021. Not yet commercial but proof of conception already exists. No gardens, no land, no farmers.

CRlSPR for coffee plants: for Cofea arabica is still very early, but academically the exploration has begun. There's a paper on Frontiers in Plant Science 2023 about genomic editing for Camellia sinensis that's a similar line. Coffee is only a matter of time if the research interest is enough.

Controlled fermentation with designer yeast and LAB cultures: this is happening now. no longer rely on native microbiome, but curated culture designed for specific profiles.

The question I'd like to throw for the discussion: if this direction continues, what's a coffee special 10-20 years from now? Are origin and terroir relevant if Flavor can be identified from upstream downstream?
7 Replies
M
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F1 hybrids are not new in agriculture, they've been in rice, corn, vegetables. What's interesting for coffee is how fast the specialty market that's been so empathetic on the unique single original will apply to the reality that original expression is not the only value of the driver. If there's a F1 hybrid that can consistently produce 87-point lot in a certain alnature, the buyer who seeks reliability will be interested in the pure heirloom status.
V
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on the side of a small farmer that I've been working with, the F1 hybrid adoption is already there but not seamless. The F1 seed is more expensive and can't be reseed, farmers have to buy new ones every cycle. It's a big change from a traditional system that can save seed itself. So from the farmer's economic side, it's not just a question of taste but a question of dependence to supplier seed.
I
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the lab-grown coffee from the VTT is the most extreme of all mentioned. But thinking that if the coffee supply continues to be depressed by climate change, the price of land, and lab cost, there is an economic pressure genuine for alternative production. It doesn't have to be 10 years, but 30-50 years? I won't dismiss this as a sci-fi.
R
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specialty coffee can already survive with a roast lighter and sold at the rate of commodity. The market can advance to something new if there's a strong story.'labIt's not just about taste.
I
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but there's something missing from the coffee no longer tied to the place and people. i bought a partial specialty coffee because there was a connection to a farmer somewhere specific to the history and culture behind it. the lab not automatic inferior, but different.
I
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it's an important distortion.'engineering 'doesn't automatically mean better or worse than cup quality perspective. but from a cultural perspective value and human connection that's part of why specialty coffee has premium, it's a question that has no answer to its clichés. the market will eventually sort this but it will take time and there will be significant disruption in the middle.
G
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it's a topic that makes me think further than usual about coffee. if the climate change is getting worse and the coffee garden at the elevation of 140- 1200m can no longer produce the same quality, does the hybrid varieties designed for the broader alider range that could be bridge? or instead it's accelerate the loss of local diversity varieties that are not hydrodize?

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