Arabica versus Robusta in the future, who wins?

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i'm reading ICO data 2023 / 2024 and I'm thinking enough. The share of robotics in global coffee production has gone up by about 30% in the 19900s. arabica is still a majority but the trend is constantly shifting to the robusta as it's more high-temperature-resistant and the result per acre is greater.

There are still reports of SCA rising in 2019 about coffee and climate change, that they project a suitable arabica area that can be less than 50% before 2050 if emissions continue to be high and the average temperature goes up 2 degrees. This number is not the first time I've read it but every time I've read it it keeps getting restless.

My unanswered questions: in the next 20-30 years, arabica premium can still be maintained or the market is forced to upgrade perception to robusta? Does anyone have any insight into this?

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arabica's not gonna make it. Premium segments will remain because the demand of the forward market is still strong and buyer specialty is willing to pay premium for good origin. That's arabica midrange from an area of altitude, approximately 800- 1000m in equatorial zone. Too low to withstand rising temperatures.

Still relatively safe. It's original with 1400m altitude up. Come up, Flores flores, Papua. But yes the amount is becoming more limited and the price will go up.

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from my position farmers in Sumatra, the signs have been visible since many years ago. The flowering season shifts, there's a batch of which cup qualifies as the garden management is unchanged. I don't have the tools to measure this scientifically but from a 15-year experience, it's different from ordinary fluctuations.

If the situation continues like this, there's no need to switch to any other type or hybrid variety. Not by choice but by economic pressure and garden conditions.

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robusta is still second class. the espresso blends 100% robusta what it's like to try. the real specialty coffee understands coffee still wants arabica. the fever from the market continues to grow rather than descend. i can't believe robusta's been up the "equivalent" arabica in 20-30 years.

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have you ever tried a fine robusta from Uganda or Vietnam a serious Fine Robusta process? Not that little number.

The one that makes robotics seem inferior all the time. It's the processor that comes from and the collapse for cheap volume, not the variety. If the processing is serious, anaerobic is natural with strict fermentation control, it's a very different kind of ordinary robusta you know. Don't miss it before it gets serious.

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i'm not used to the average consumer thinking that i'm here. if arabica specialty gets more and more expensive, consumers like me get sold what? robusta with premium branding? or is the single original coffee price doubled and the marketing is getting more exclusive?

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the "who won" question may be framing the wrong one. in real markets both have different segments and most likely will be coexist with shifting proportions.

arabica is getting more and more rare means it's going up structurally. it's actually good for arabica farmers who can still produce in the viable areas. fine robusta has a growing space in the segment which has been controlled by arabica midrange. not a war, but rebalancing their positions.

Arabica versus Robusta in the future, who wins?

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